시리아 정부와 반정부연합의 제네바 평화 회의 가능성 - 내전 종식의 물꼬?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/25/world/middleeast/syria.html?smid=pl-share

Russia Says Syria Will Attend Geneva Peace Talks

MOSCOW — The Syrian government has agreed to participate in an international peace conference coordinated by Russia and the United States, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

“We note with satisfaction that Damascus has confirmed its readiness in principle to participate in an international conference in the interest of the Syrians themselves finding a political path to a settlement of the conflict that has been devastating for the country and the region,” the spokesman, Aleksandr Lukashevich, said in a statement.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, and Secretary of State John Kerry agreed during a meeting in Moscow earlier this month to pull together the peace conference, with Russia responsible for bringing the government of President Bashar al-Assad to the table and the Americans focused on securing the participation of the Syrian opposition. The meeting is expected next month.

But even as Mr. Lukashevich said the Syrian government had committed to participating in the talks, he cited “complicating factors” that were undermining efforts to broker an end to the violence.

He said some steps by the West at the United Nations in New York and in Geneva were counterproductive.

“It’s regrettable that despite our persistent appeals to some partners, after the Russian-American initiative has already been announced, a decision on Syria was imposed on the U.N. General Assembly, which was lopsided in its character and contradicting to the consensus being formed in the world in favor of political settlement in this country,” he said.

Last week, the 193-member General Assembly passed a nonbinding resolution calling for a political transition to end the civil war in Syria, putting the burden on Mr. Assad’s government to stop the killing.

The United Nations’ top human rights official, Navi Pillay, has repeated called for urgent action to halt the violence in Syria, underscoring the level of brutality of the conflict, calling for war crimes investigations on both sides and monitoring the rising death toll and refugee crisis. More than 80,000 people are believed to have died in the conflict, and hundreds of thousands of refugees have crowded into bordering nations.

But Mr. Lukashevich called the proposed peace conference “a real chance to stop the bloodshed and suffering of the Syrians and ensure a peaceful, democratic future for Syria.”

“This opportunity should not be missed,” he said.

A spokesman for Syria’s main political opposition group responded to the announcement that the government would attend by saying there were no signs that it was really willing to produce “a peaceful political solution.”

The spokesman, Khaled Saleh, speaking on the sidelines of a three-day meeting of the opposition in Istanbul, said, “When any meaningful negotiation must start with good-will gestures, the regime continues using chemical weapons and heavily engages Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters on the ground.”

The Syrian opposition was meeting to elect a new leader and formulate its positions before the expected conference in Geneva . Mr. Kerry will fly to Paris on Monday to meet with Mr. Lavrov to discuss the Geneva meeting, an American official said.

Earlier this week, leading members of the group, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, and top foreign affairs officials, including Mr. Kerry, held an 11-country meeting in Amman, Jordan, on the deteriorating situation in Syria.

At the start of the talks in Istanbul, members of the opposition group expressed hesitation about attending the Geneva meeting, and they asked for clarification on what to expect before committing to it, while emphasizing that such talks might be futile unless Mr. Assad was removed.

“We do not have too much illusion,” said Ahmed Kamel, a member of the coalition. “We know the regime, we know Assad, and we know that he would never quit power without force.”

Russia supports Mr. Assad’s continued leadership, saying his presence would stabilize any transition. Members of the opposition group insist that he must not be a part of any future government.

“The international community says that they can remove Assad from power; so does the U.S.,” Mr. Kamel said on the sidelines of the discussions. “We just need to stop massacres until then.”

The meetings are intended to enlarge the 63-seat national coalition, the largest opposition group, with more members from the liberated areas inside Syria.

Disagreements, however, remained on how to secure representation by gender and ethnic and religious backgrounds, and how to establish trust for newer, little-known candidates.

The opposition group has been without a president since Sheik Moaz al-Khatib resigned the post amid political infighting in March.

At the start of the talks, Sheik Khatib put forward his own 16-step proposal for a political transition to a post-Assad government. Among other things, it would absolve all combatants involved in “legal military action” from prosecution and allow Mr. Assad and 500 people of his choosing, along with their families, to seek refuge in any country willing to welcome them.

Sheik Khatib’s plan, published on his official Facebook page, would retain some members of the current government. Under it, Mr. Assad would hand power to Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa or Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi within 30 days of accepting the plan.

Subsequent measures include dissolving Parliament and transferring legislative powers to an agreed-upon candidate to handle the transition. Sheik Khatib added that the current government would continue to govern for 100 days, restructure the security and military apparatus, and release political prisoners.

But it is not clear whether any other members of the opposition coalition will support the plan. “No one listened to him when he was still head of the coalition; why would they listen to him now?” said an activist contacted via Skype in the suburbs of Damascus, the Syrian capital, who declined to give her name.

And it is unlikely to appeal to the rebels fighting Mr. Assad’s army and its allies on the ground, who say they want Assad loyalists to pay for their actions.

Asi, an activist who works at a makeshift hospital in Qusayr, a Syrian town where clashes are raging between government forces and rebels, wrote on his Facebook page: “This pathetic nobody Moaz, the dangerous, is calling for Assad to leave with 500 individuals and wants to absolve soldiers. You donkey, you’re going to be tried before Assad, God willing.” (The word for “dangerous” in Arabic is similar to Sheik Khatib’s surname.)

Even if the plan did win support, Mr. Assad himself has repeatedly emphasized in televised interviews that he has no plans to leave Syria, and refuses to step down before presidential elections — which he plans to enter — are held next year.

Sheik Khatib portrayed his proposal as a response to ideas by Russia and the United States for a political solution, and a way to “prevent the decay of Syria, its people, its land, its economy.”

 

시리아 정부가 제네바에서의 평화회의에 참가하겠다고 밝혔고, 반정부연합도 참가를 고려하고 있다는 내용의 기사입니다.8만 명이 넘는 사망자와 수십만의 난민을 초래한 시리아 내전에서 정부의 생화학무기 사용설까지 나돌고 있는 가운데, 상황은 점점 악화되는 듯 보였습니다. 하지만 이번 논의로 평화 회의가 이루어진다면, 2년여 간의 비극이 막을 내릴거라는 기대를 해봐도 되겠네요. 다른 무엇보다 정부와 반정부연합의 충돌로 생기는 사상자들의 방지를 위해서라도 양측 모두 민주주의의 기본원리대화와 타협(!)을 통해 적절한 합의점을 도출해 낼 수 있었으면 좋겠습니다.